In the often-unpredictable arena of American politics, hypothetical matchups can sometimes yield surprising insights.

A striking example comes from a recent poll by UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion, which pitched former Republican President Donald Trump against pop star Taylor Swift and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a mock electoral showdown.

If voters were to cast their ballots today in the celebrity-studded race, former President Trump would emerge the clear frontrunner, outpacing his competitors by significant margins. The survey revealed Trump at the helm with 43%, leaving Swift trailing with 26%, and Kennedy in a distant third at 12%.

Despite her massive global fan base and influential platform, Swift’s political allure seems confined within narrower bounds; 51% of Democrat respondents and 56% of self-described liberals showed their preference for her. Her appeal among Republicans and conservatives remained in the low single digits, at 3% and 4% respectively.

2024 National GE:

Donald Trump (R) 43% (+17)
Taylor Swift (D) 26%
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I) 12%
Other 7%
.
Joe Biden (D) 42% (+18)
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I) 24%
Kanye West (R) 6%
Other 15%

.@YouGovAmerica/@UMassLowell, 1,688 LV, 4/3-8 https://t.co/tppmv26l40

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) April 18, 2024

Adding an extra layer of interest—or perhaps, impracticality—to this electoral tableau is Swift’s age. At 34, she falls short of the Constitutional age requirement to serve as President. She wouldn’t qualify until after the upcoming election, a detail that did not deter her hypothetical supporters.
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As for the main part of the poll, the research center revealed a deadlocked presidential race between President Joe Biden and former President Trump, with each candidate garnering 42% support among likely voters. The survey involved 1,688 participants.

“With the candidates tied, everything in this race matters a lot more. Unfortunately for both candidates, they may be at the mercy of events outside their control, whether it’s voters’ feelings about the economy, who they trust on issues like immigration and abortion, and the progress of Donald Trump’s legal issues” said Associate Professor John Cluverius, who is the director of survey research at the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion.

“Both candidates are stuck in a place where the future is uncertain and they, two of the most powerful men on the planet, are simply along for the electoral ride.”

Additional findings show a large divide in party loyalty, with 84% of Republicans backing Trump and 86% of Democrats supporting Biden. Among independents, Trump leads with 37%, compared to Biden’s 20%. The poll also highlighted voters’ concerns about the economy, with 54% reporting increased difficulty in affording basic necessities over the past six months. Despite this, there remains optimism that the next president could improve financial conditions for those struggling.

On social issues, 64% of respondents believe there should be a right to abortion in every state, even as the issue remains highly contentious with abortion banned in 21 states as of the survey date.

According to the poll, more than half of likely voters, 52%, oppose granting full pardons to those arrested during the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach, with 40% strongly opposed and 12% somewhat opposed. Conversely, 48% support the pardons, including 28% who strongly support them and 20% who somewhat support them.

Additionally, two-thirds of likely voters endorse federal legislation that would require TikTok to secure an American buyer or face removal from app stores; 34% oppose this measure.

Regarding international issues, 73% of respondents favor an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Opinions on a long-term solution vary: 43% support a two-state solution with shared governance in Jerusalem, 31% back a single bi-national state, and 26% prefer no change to the current situation.